Disney Stock Before Q3 Earnings: Buy Now or Wait for Results?

The consensus mark for earnings has remained stable at $1.88 per share over the past 30 days, indicating a decline of 17.39% year over year.

Management had guided toward roughly $5.3 billion in total segment operating income for the third quarter and reaffirmed an outlook for full-year adjusted EPS growth of approximately 12%, excluding an extra reporting week, alongside a target of at least $8 billion in share repurchases. These company-issued benchmarks framed expectations heading into the print.

Disney’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 6.81%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors Shaping Upcoming Results

On the entertainment side, Disney's direct-to-consumer business entered the quarter having just delivered its first double-digit Entertainment SVOD operating margin, with management reiterating confidence in sustaining at least 10% for the full year. The content slate through the quarter included the theatrical release of Toy Story 5, which crossed the billion-dollar mark globally, and the streaming debut of Avatar: Fire and Ash on Disney+ in late June, both expected to support engagement and content-sales revenues. The Mandalorian and Grogu also launched in theaters over Memorial Day, though its steep second-weekend decline tempered enthusiasm around the title's staying power.

Offsetting these positives, Disney had explicitly guided for Sports segment operating income to decline by roughly 14% year over year in the fiscal third quarter, driven by higher programming costs tied to the timing of new rights agreements, including a shift of college sports and NBA rights expenses into the period.

At Experiences, management had pointed to easing year-over-year attendance headwinds at domestic parks, with the Disney Adventure cruise ship and World of Frozen expansion at Disneyland Paris, both launched in March, expected to continue contributing incremental guest spending. Even so, the company had flagged continued mindfulness of macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on consumer behavior, tempering visibility into discretionary spending trends.

Given the clearly telegraphed Sports segment drag, ongoing streaming investment costs and lingering macro caution acknowledged by management itself, the near-term setup appeared balanced rather than decisively bullish. Investors already holding shares may find it prudent to stay the course given the durable SVOD margin trajectory and healthy content pipeline, while those considering fresh positions might have benefited from waiting for post-earnings clarity before committing new capital.

What Our Model Indicates

Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.

Snap has an Earnings ESP of -0.86% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat earnings in their upcoming releases:

Sweetgreen SG currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.54% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. SG shares have declined 0.9% in the past six-month period. SG is set to report its second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 6. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Groupon GRPN has an Earnings ESP of +4.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. GRPN shares have surged 102.5% in the past six-month period. GRPN is set to report its second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 6.

Portillo's Inc. PTLO presently has an Earnings ESP of +3.85% and a Zacks Rank #3. PTLO shares have declined 25.9% in the past six-month period. PTLO is slated to report its second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 5.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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