Lowe's Q2 Earnings Preview: Is LOW Ready to Surprise the Street?

LOW has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.3%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Mooresville, NC-based company’s bottom line outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 2.4%. 

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What the Zacks Model Says About LOW’s Q2 Earnings

As investors prepare for Lowe’s second-quarter results, the question looms regarding an earnings beat or miss. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lowe’s this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. 

Lowe’s has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of -0.91%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Key Factors to Observe Ahead of LOW's Q2 Earnings

Lowe’s second-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from sustained demand, backed by focused merchandising and promotional execution. The company entered the quarter with strength in lawn and garden and other outdoor categories and planned to keep value and innovation at the center of its offers. A broad assortment of leading brands, healthy in-stock positions and convenient delivery options may have helped Lowe’s convert seasonal traffic across stores and digital channels. Management also highlighted the continued rollout of workwear and pet assortments, which could have provided an incremental sales opportunity during the quarter.

We believe continued momentum in Lowe’s Total Home strategy may also have supported the quarter. The Pro business remained a key area of strength, with small- and medium-sized professional customers continuing to engage in repair and maintenance projects despite the difficult housing backdrop. Investments in Pro Extended Aisle, localized assortments, improved fulfillment and digital tools have expanded the company’s ability to serve these customers while simplifying the purchasing process. At the same time, enhancements to online shopping, same-day delivery and the MyLowe’s loyalty platforms are likely to have encouraged customers.

Home services and operational improvements may have provided another layer of support. Lowe’s continued to gain traction with installation and replacement projects, particularly in categories where customers value speed, convenience and professional service. Appliances also remained well positioned because of the company’s broad brand assortment, omnichannel capabilities and fast delivery and installation network. Productivity initiatives across stores and the supply chain — including AI-enabled associate tools, faster replenishment and efforts to improve product availability — may have helped Lowe’s maintain service levels and capture demand more efficiently. The integration of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group also offered opportunities for procurement efficiencies and cross-selling while extending Lowe’s reach with professional and construction customers.

That said, Lowe’s is likely to have continued to face pressure from the broader home improvement environment. Elevated interest rates, high housing costs and subdued housing turnover have kept DIY demand under strain, particularly for larger discretionary projects, while lower-income consumers have remained cautious. These demand challenges were compounded by cost pressures, including higher transportation expenses and inflation in fuel and commodity-based products.

LOW Stock Price Performance

Lowe’s, which competes with The Home Depot, Inc. HD and Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. FND, has seen its shares decline 0.6% over the past three months against the industry’s rise of 9.6%. Shares of Home Depot and Floor & Decor Holdings have advanced 12.1% and 28%, respectively.

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Does LOW Present a Strong Case for Value Investing?

Lowe’s valuation remains discounted relative to the industry. The stock currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 16.64, below the industry average of 19.63. LOW is also trading below its own 12-month median P/E of 18.66, suggesting that the stock remains attractively valued relative to the industry and its recent historical range.

Lowe’s is trading at a discount to Home Depot (with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 21.59) and Floor & Decor (26.24). 

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Final Words on Lowe’s Stock

Lowe’s enters the second-quarter earnings release with a mixed setup. Strength in Pro, online, home services and ongoing productivity initiatives could support sales, while its relatively attractive valuation may appeal to long-term investors. However, persistent weakness in discretionary DIY demand, housing-market pressures and elevated operating costs remain meaningful concerns. More importantly, the current earnings setup does not point convincingly toward an earnings beat, which limits the case for taking an aggressive position ahead of the report.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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