Progressive's July Earnings Decline Y/Y on Escalating Expenses

Progressive recorded net premiums written of $7.4 billion, up 5% from $7 billion in the year-ago month. Net premiums earned were about $7.3 billion, up 5% from $6.9 billion reported in the year-ago month.

Net realized losses on securities were $47 million against a net realized income of $79 million from the year-ago month.

Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — deteriorated 150 basis points (bps) year over year to 86.8.

PGR’s total revenues were $7.8 billion, up 27.1% year over year, owing to a 5.3% increase in premiums, a 10.9% jump in investment income, and 8.9% higher service revenues.

Total expenses increased 7.1% to $6.6 billion, mainly due to higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs, other underwriting expenses, investment expenses, service expenses and interest expense.

In July 2026, policies in force (PIF) were impressive for both Vehicle and Property businesses. In the Vehicle business, the Personal Auto segment recorded a 7% year-over-year increase to 39 million policies. Special Lines policies rose 6% from the year-earlier month to 7.3 million.

In Progressive’s Personal Auto segment, Agency Auto PIF increased 7% to 11.3 million, while Direct Auto improved 9% to 16.8 million.

PGR’s Commercial Auto segment policies rose 4% year over year to 1.2 million.

The Property business had 3.6 million policies in force in the reported month, remaining unchanged year over year.

The company’s book value per share was $59.64 as of July 31, 2026, up 4.8% from $56.92 on July 31, 2025. 

In the trailing 12 months, the return on equity was 31.3%, down 840 bps from 39.7% in July 2025. The debt-to-total-capital ratio deteriorated 240 bps year over year to 19.5 as of July 31, 2026.

Price Performance

Progressive shares have lost 14% in the past year against the industry’s growth of 2.7%.

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Zacks Rank

Progressive currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Stocks to Consider

Some better-ranked stocks from the insurance industry are The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. THG, First American Financial Corporation FAF and Mercury General Corporation MCY. While THG sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), FAF and MCY carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Hanover Insurance’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 27.33%. Shares of THG have jumped 25.9% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for THG’s 2026 and 2027 revenues implies year-over-year growth of 4.6% and 4.5%, respectively.

First American’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 23.58%. Shares of FAF have gained 12.5% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FAF’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 17.5% and 4%, respectively.

Mercury General’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 70.21%. Shares of MCY have jumped 39.3% in the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MCY’s 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 61.3%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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