SoFi vs. Upstart: Which Fintech Lending Stock Fits Your Portfolio Best?

This makes SoFi more diversified across revenue sources, while Upstart is more directly exposed to credit demand, funding appetite and macro-driven default risk. The key question is which business model offers the stronger balance of growth, earnings durability and risk now.

The Case for SOFI

SoFi entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum. Second-quarter adjusted net revenues rose 40% year over year to $1.21 billion, while adjusted EBITDA climbed 44% to $358 million. GAAP net income reached $157 million, showing that rapid growth is now arriving alongside meaningful profitability rather than replacing it.

The customer engine also looks healthy. Members increased 35% to 15.8 million, products rose 42% to 24.4 million, and 51% of new products were opened by existing members. This matters because SoFi can spread acquisition costs across more services, which is a structural advantage over Upstart's more credit-centered operating model.

Diversification is another key strength for SOFI. Financial Services and Technology Platform revenues together reached $551 million, or 46% of adjusted net revenues, while fee-based revenues totaled $472 million. SoFi is also expanding investing options, including new private-market funds from CAZ Investments and AngelList, giving members more reasons to stay within its ecosystem.

Lending remains important, but SoFi has more funding flexibility. Total originations hit $14.8 billion, including $3.1 billion through its loan platform business. Deposits reached $45.5 billion, supporting a 5.98% net interest margin. Compared with Upstart, SoFi can combine balance sheet lending with partner-funded originations instead of relying mainly on outside capital.

However, the main risk is that personal lending remains a major earnings driver, leaving SoFi exposed to credit and rate changes. Even so, management raised 2026 adjusted net revenue guidance to $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion while maintaining profitability targets. The broader model gives it more room to absorb lending volatility.

The Case for UPST

Upstart's second quarter was clearly better than its recent track record. Revenues rose 42% year over year to $365 million, originations increased 50% to $4.2 billion, and the company returned to GAAP profitability with $16.5 million of net income. Adjusted EBITDA reached $76.9 million, a 21% margin.

Its core technology remains a key strength. Upstart says its personal-loan model is 2.74 times as accurate as a traditional credit model, while 91% of funded loans were fully automated. Funding improved with committed capital capacity reaching $10.8 billion through Aug. 4, including a new Castlelake agreement covering up to $4 billion.

However, the problem is that newer businesses still lag. Auto and Home originations are growing quickly, but their combined contribution margin was still negative 35% in the second quarter. Management expects breakeven by the fourth quarter, yet that target still requires continued execution. SoFi's broader non-lending businesses already contribute at greater scale.

Macro sensitivity is also harder to ignore. Upstart's UMI reached 1.50 in early August, about 50% above its normal-economy baseline and the highest reading since January 2026. July originations were $1.40 billion, roughly in line with the second quarter's monthly average, suggesting that strong quarterly growth has not yet produced obvious acceleration.

Upstart kept guidance at about $1.4 billion of revenues and $294 million of adjusted EBITDA, rather than lifting it after the strong quarter. Management cited higher UMI as a headwind. With results still tied closely to consumer credit conditions and third-party funding, the recovery looks less durable than SoFi's, making the risk-reward profile increasingly difficult.

How Do Estimates Compare for SOFI & UPST?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SoFi’s 2026 and 2027 sales implies year-over-year growth of 35.52% and 20.16%, respectively. Over the past month, estimates for SOFI’s 2026 and 2027 EPS have been revised marginally upward. Also, the consensus mark for 2026 and 2027 EPS suggests a year-over-year increase of 53.85% and 34.86%, respectively. 

For SoFi Technologies: 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Upstart’s 2026 and 2027 sales calls for year-over-year growth of 36.00% and 30.93%, respectively. However, the consensus EPS estimates for both 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 30 days, though the figures suggest a year-over-year increase of 26.44% and 47.12%, respectively.  

For Upstart:

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Price Performance and Valuation of SOFI & UPST

Over the past three months, SoFi shares have rallied 12.6% while Upstart shares have just inched up 0.9%. In comparison, the S&P 500 composite has advanced 2.4% in the same time frame.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

SOFI is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales of 4.20X, which is on par with its three-year median. Meanwhile, UPST is presently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales of 1.67X, which is below its three-year median of 3.91X. 

On a forward price-to-sales basis, SoFi carried the richer valuation, while Upstart looks much cheaper on this measure, but the discount reflects a business with greater sensitivity to credit conditions, funding markets and execution in still-unprofitable secured products. 

SoFi's premium is easier to understand because revenues are more diversified and profitability is stronger. Still, paying more for SoFi raises the bar for continued member growth, cross-product adoption and credit discipline. The valuation gap favors UPST on price alone, but not necessarily on business quality.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Conclusion

Both companies are growing again, but the quality of that growth differs. SoFi combines lending momentum with deposits, fee income, investing, technology services and profitability, giving it several ways to keep expanding if one area slows. Upstart has improved its core personal-loan business and funding base, yet elevated UMI, loss-making secured products and heavier dependence on external capital keep its outlook more fragile. 

For investors choosing between the two, SOFI is the stronger portfolio candidate to retain through normal volatility. UPST's rebound deserves credit, but its risk profile remains high enough that reducing or exiting the position looks more sensible.

While SOFI carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), UPST has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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