Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Burlington Stores (BURL) earns a #3 (Hold) 17 days from its next quarterly earnings release on August 27, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $2.18 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the $2.18 Most Accurate Estimate and the $2.17 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Burlington Stores has an Earnings ESP of +0.57%. Investors should also know that BURL is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
BURL is just one of a large group of Retail and Wholesale stocks with a positive ESP figure. eBay (EBAY) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Slated to report earnings on November 4, 2026, eBay holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $1.44 a share 86 days from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for eBay is $1.43, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +0.35%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, BURL and EBAY could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Before you invest in Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL), want to know the best stocks to buy for the next 30 days? Check out Zacks Investment Research for our free report on the 7 best stocks to buy.
Zacks Investment Research has been committed to providing investors with tools and independent research since 1978. For more than a quarter century, the Zacks Rank stock-rating system has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.08% per year. (These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 6, 2024.)
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Â
Â
Originally published on zacks.com, part of the BLOX Digital Content Exchange.
Please disable your ad blocker, whitelist our site, or purchase a subscription
Sorry, an error occurred.
Already Subscribed!
Cancel anytime
Thank you .
Your account has been registered, and you are now logged in.
Check your email for details.
Submitting this form below will send a message to your email with a link to change your password.
An email message containing instructions on how to reset your password has been sent to the email address listed on your account.
No promotional rates found.
Secure & Encrypted
Thank you.
Your gift purchase was successful! Your purchase was successful, and you are now logged in.
| Rate: | |
| Begins: | |
| Transaction ID: |
A receipt was sent to your email.
(0) comments
Welcome to the discussion.
Log In
Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR CAPS LOCK.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.